Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Wednesday 29 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 59225 (+2576) 1035240 (+27197) 141907 (+4168) 834108 (+20453)
Italy 27359 (+382) 201505 (+2091) 68941 (+2317) 105205 (-608)
Spain 23822 (+301) 232128 (+2706) 123903 (+3071) 84403 (-666)
France 23660 (+367) 165911 (+69) 46886 (+1373) 95365 (-1671)
United Kingdom 21678 (+586) 161145 (+3996) 0 (+0) 139467 (+3410)
Belgium 7331 (+124) 47334 (+647) 10943 (+65) 29060 (+458)
Germany 6314 (+253) 159912 (+1478) 117400 (+2900) 36198 (-1675)
Iran 5877 (+71) 92584 (+1112) 72439 (+1506) 14268 (-465)
Brazil 5063 (+520) 72899 (+6398) 32544 (+1402) 35292 (+4476)
China 4633 (+0) 82836 (+6) 77555 (+81) 648 (-75)
Netherlands 4566 (+48) 38416 (+171) 0 (+0) 33850 (+123)
Turkey 2992 (+92) 114653 (+2392) 38809 (+5018) 72852 (-2718)
Canada 2859 (+155) 50026 (+1568) 19190 (+975) 27977 (+438)
Sweden 2355 (+81) 19621 (+695) 1005 (+0) 16261 (+614)
Switzerland 1699 (+34) 29264 (+100) 22600 (+400) 4965 (-334)
Mexico 1434 (+83) 15529 (+852) 9086 (+732) 5009 (+37)
Ireland 1159 (+57) 19877 (+229) 9233 (+0) 9485 (+172)
India 1008 (+69) 31360 (+1909) 7747 (+610) 22605 (+1230)
Portugal 948 (+20) 24322 (+295) 1389 (+32) 21985 (+243)
Ecuador 871 (+208) 24258 (+1018) 1557 (+0) 21830 (+810)
Russia 867 (+73) 93558 (+6411) 8456 (+1110) 84235 (+5228)
Peru 854 (+72) 31190 (+2491) 9179 (+754) 21157 (+1665)
Indonesia 773 (+8) 9511 (+415) 1254 (+103) 7484 (+304)
Romania 663 (+22) 11616 (+277) 3404 (+263) 7549 (-8)
Poland 596 (+34) 12218 (+316) 2655 (+189) 8967 (+93)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 213130 (+6561) 3053059 (+76808) 874841 (+33163)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 211931 ( +3326) 2972409 ( +40006) 874749 ( +27117)
Thu 30 April 2020 214950 ( +3020) 3008997 ( +36588) 900394 ( +25644)
Fri 01 May 2020 217683 ( +2733) 3042375 ( +33378) 924524 ( +24130)
Sat 02 May 2020 220149 ( +2466) 3072754 ( +30380) 947121 ( +22597)
Sun 03 May 2020 222369 ( +2220) 3100347 ( +27593) 968189 ( +21068)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 4633 (+0) 82836 (+6) 77555 (+81)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 3721 ( +0) 81536 ( +0) 76835 ( +3)
Thu 30 April 2020 3721 ( +0) 81536 ( +0) 76838 ( +3)
Fri 01 May 2020 3722 ( +0) 81536 ( +0) 76840 ( +2)
Sat 02 May 2020 3722 ( +0) 81536 ( +0) 76842 ( +2)
Sun 03 May 2020 3722 ( +0) 81536 ( +0) 76844 ( +2)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 23822 (+301) 232128 (+2706) 123903 (+3071)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 22707 ( +79) 219458 ( +875) 111500 ( +1848)
Thu 30 April 2020 22775 ( +68) 220225 ( +767) 113186 ( +1685)
Fri 01 May 2020 22833 ( +58) 220896 ( +672) 114718 ( +1532)
Sat 02 May 2020 22883 ( +50) 221484 ( +588) 116106 ( +1388)
Sun 03 May 2020 22926 ( +43) 221998 ( +514) 117361 ( +1255)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 27359 (+382) 201505 (+2091) 68941 (+2317)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 26236 ( +124) 193043 ( +737) 69756 ( +1889)
Thu 30 April 2020 26347 ( +111) 193703 ( +660) 71573 ( +1817)
Fri 01 May 2020 26445 ( +99) 194294 ( +591) 73316 ( +1743)
Sat 02 May 2020 26533 ( +88) 194823 ( +529) 74982 ( +1666)
Sun 03 May 2020 26611 ( +78) 195296 ( +473) 76569 ( +1587)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 21678 (+586) 161145 (+3996) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 21277 ( +260) 158575 ( +2340) nan ( +nan)
Thu 30 April 2020 21502 ( +225) 160676 ( +2101) nan ( +nan)
Fri 01 May 2020 21697 ( +195) 162556 ( +1880) nan ( +nan)
Sat 02 May 2020 21864 ( +168) 164233 ( +1677) nan ( +nan)
Sun 03 May 2020 22008 ( +144) 165726 ( +1493) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 59225 (+2576) 1035240 (+27197) 141907 (+4168)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 59269 ( +1121) 1003344 ( +13290) 148731 ( +9226)
Thu 30 April 2020 60254 ( +985) 1015262 ( +11918) 157999 ( +9268)
Fri 01 May 2020 61117 ( +862) 1025920 ( +10657) 167242 ( +9243)
Sat 02 May 2020 61868 ( +751) 1035425 ( +9505) 176394 ( +9152)
Sun 03 May 2020 62520 ( +652) 1043883 ( +8458) 185391 ( +8998)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 23660 (+367) 165911 (+69) 46886 (+1373)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 23149 ( +143) 163821 ( +369) 58890 ( +3326)
Thu 30 April 2020 23271 ( +122) 164131 ( +310) 62416 ( +3526)
Fri 01 May 2020 23374 ( +103) 164391 ( +260) 66153 ( +3737)
Sat 02 May 2020 23462 ( +88) 164609 ( +218) 70113 ( +3960)
Sun 03 May 2020 23537 ( +74) 164793 ( +183) 74310 ( +4197)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 6314 (+253) 159912 (+1478) 117400 (+2900)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 6224 ( +86) 154474 ( +361) 114967 ( +1310)
Thu 30 April 2020 6300 ( +76) 154785 ( +311) 116110 ( +1142)
Fri 01 May 2020 6367 ( +67) 155053 ( +267) 117103 ( +993)
Sat 02 May 2020 6425 ( +59) 155283 ( +230) 117964 ( +861)
Sun 03 May 2020 6476 ( +51) 155480 ( +198) 118710 ( +745)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 4566 (+48) 38416 (+171) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 4493 ( +40) 38184 ( +331) 185 ( +0)
Thu 30 April 2020 4528 ( +35) 38482 ( +298) 185 ( +0)
Fri 01 May 2020 4559 ( +31) 38749 ( +267) 185 ( +0)
Sat 02 May 2020 4586 ( +27) 38988 ( +239) 185 ( +0)
Sun 03 May 2020 4610 ( +24) 39202 ( +214) 185 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 7331 (+124) 47334 (+647) 10943 (+65)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 7259 ( +77) 46649 ( +445) 10750 ( +103)
Thu 30 April 2020 7324 ( +65) 47046 ( +398) 10840 ( +90)
Fri 01 May 2020 7380 ( +56) 47401 ( +355) 10918 ( +78)
Sat 02 May 2020 7427 ( +47) 47716 ( +316) 10986 ( +68)
Sun 03 May 2020 7467 ( +40) 47997 ( +280) 11045 ( +59)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 2355 (+81) 19621 (+695) 1005 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 2403 ( +55) 19566 ( +390) 1048 ( +54)
Thu 30 April 2020 2453 ( +50) 19932 ( +366) 1102 ( +54)
Fri 01 May 2020 2498 ( +45) 20275 ( +343) 1156 ( +54)
Sat 02 May 2020 2539 ( +40) 20595 ( +320) 1210 ( +54)
Sun 03 May 2020 2575 ( +36) 20893 ( +298) 1263 ( +53)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 596 (+34) 12218 (+316) 2655 (+189)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 584 ( +15) 11964 ( +170) 2851 ( +189)
Thu 30 April 2020 598 ( +14) 12117 ( +153) 3034 ( +183)
Fri 01 May 2020 610 ( +13) 12255 ( +138) 3209 ( +175)
Sat 02 May 2020 621 ( +11) 12379 ( +124) 3375 ( +166)
Sun 03 May 2020 632 ( +10) 12491 ( +111) 3530 ( +155)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 1699 (+34) 29264 (+100) 22600 (+400)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 1634 ( +10) 28423 ( +34) 21898 ( +155)
Thu 30 April 2020 1643 ( +9) 28451 ( +29) 22030 ( +132)
Fri 01 May 2020 1651 ( +8) 28476 ( +25) 22142 ( +112)
Sat 02 May 2020 1657 ( +7) 28497 ( +21) 22236 ( +94)
Sun 03 May 2020 1663 ( +6) 28515 ( +18) 22315 ( +80)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 28 April 2020 5877 (+71) 92584 (+1112) 72439 (+1506)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 29 April 2020 5647 ( +27) 90923 ( +488) 73737 ( +1126)
Thu 30 April 2020 5672 ( +25) 91365 ( +441) 74767 ( +1029)
Fri 01 May 2020 5694 ( +22) 91764 ( +399) 75705 ( +938)
Sat 02 May 2020 5714 ( +20) 92124 ( +361) 76558 ( +853)
Sun 03 May 2020 5733 ( +18) 92450 ( +325) 77332 ( +774)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.